Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering

Paper Detail

A novel fuzzy expert system for project portfolio risk management: case study of a construction company

Volume 16, No. 3, 2022
Received: 2021/10/31, Accepted: 2022/04/24


Mohammad Khalilzadeh; Sayyid Ali Banihashemi;


Executive managers of organizations are seeking for solutions to complete projects within predetermined duration, budget, and quality. Obviously, improper risk management processes are the main reasons for the failure of projects. This research aims to design a new fuzzy expert system for project portfolio risk management. In this paper, the main risk factors of the project portfolio are identified through library research and expert judgment. Then, the DEMATEL method is used to identify the causal relationships between risk factors. Subsequently, the combination of fuzzy AHP and FMEA methods is exploited to determine the most important risk factors. In the following step, different risk response strategies are proposed to tackle the major risk factors. Finally, a fuzzy multi-objective mathematical programming model is developed to select the optimal risk response strategies considering the three main objectives of time, cost and quality. The findings showed that the proposed fuzzy expert system has the capability and efficiency for identifying and assessing the risks of the project portfolio and selecting the optimal risk response strategies in the case study.


Project portfolio, risk management, DEMATEL, Fuzzy AHP-FMEA, multi-objective optimization