Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering

Risk Analysis for a BOT Project

Authors:

Swapan Kumar Bagui; Ambarish Ghosh;

Abstract:

There are several risks in a BOT project. Major critical risks are total project cost and revenue/tollable traffic. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for a BOT project with a real case study varying equity from 10% to 90%.Traffic and cost are varied ± 20% and financial analysis is carried out with spread sheet, and test results are prepared in graphical forms and presented. Total Project Cost (TPC), Net Present Value (NPV) and Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) are plotted with various percentages of equity. Linear and non-linear graphs are found. FIRR decreases with increasing TPC/Equity, and probability of project risk increases with increasing percentage of equity up to 30 % and decreases beyond this value.

Keywords:

Risk analysis, BOT projects