Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on the Drought Conditions in Jordan


Fayez A. Abdulla; Dima A. Husein Malkawi;


The objective of this study is to assess the potential impacts of climate change on drought severity in the three climatic regions of Jordan (Jordan Valley, Highlands and Badia regions). Monthly precipitation time series (1970-2005) for Irbid, Baqura and Amman stations were used for the estimation of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (drought index). The 5th generation of the ECHAM general circulation model (ECHAM5OM) has been used to estimate the precipitation changes for the period (2020-2055) for the climate change scenario SRES A2. The SPI computed at various time scales (1 month, 3 months, 6 months and 12 months) was used as an indicator of meteorological drought for the present-time and future climate conditions. The study revealed that the three regions behave differently with regard to drought characteristics due to precipitation change under climate change. The results indicated that the moderate/extreme drought months will be slightly decreased in Irbid region in the future under climate conditions. However, Amman and Baqura moderate/extreme drought conditions are expected to be increased under climate change. Also, the results revealed that these regions will suffer from longer-duration drought in the future under climate change scenario compared to that of historical droughts. It is expected that the frequency of drought duration of more than 6 months will be increased in all investigated regions.


Climate change, Drought pojection, Drought index, SPI, Trend analysis, Jordan