Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering

Assessing Flood Risk at the Catchment Scale by Integrating Hazard and Vulnerability with Climate Change Context


Suraj Lamichhane; Sneha Sanjel;


Frequent flooding in the central part of the Hindu Kush region, Nepal, results in substantial damage to lives and property, particularly in the plains. This study explores the catchment-scale flood hazard and vulnerability, generating flood risks under climate change scenario. Flood model was developed using HEC-RAS 2D rain-on-grid approach and CMIP6 projected climate data for SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios were used. Flood hazard, vulnerability and risk maps were generated delineating potential inundation scenarios for both 50-year, and 100-year return periods, under present and future climate scenarios. Hazard maps reveal a probable increase in flooding under future climate scenarios. Vulnerability assessments also demonstrate an anticipated escalation in future. Cropland dominates the land-use type in the study area, with agriculture vulnerability increasing by 22.14% (SSP245) and 29.322% (SSP585). The number of inundated buildings increases from 2967 in the existing scenario to 4601 (SSP245) and 5274 (SSP585). Similarly, road vulnerability areas are increased by 28.06% (SSP245) and 37.86% (SSP585). The impact of flooding is higher in SSP585 as compared to SSP245 scenario. The catchment level outcomes have diverse applications, particularly in decision-making for flood management, integrating risk maps for effective strategies, and providing valuable insights to shape climate change adaptation policies.


catchment scale, climate change, flood vulnerability, flood risk, HEC-RAS 2D