Authors:
Ayman A. Abu Hammad; Souma M. Alhaj Ali; Ghaleb J. Sweis; Adnan Bashir;
Abstract:
Risk is mitigated in the course of reliable prediction. A probabilistic model is proposed to predict the risk effects
on time and cost of construction projects. Project managers and consultants can use the model in estimating
project cost and duration based on historic data.
Statistical regression models and sample tests are developed using real data of 140 projects. The research
objective is to develop a model to predict project cost and duration based on historic data of similar projects. The
model result can be used by project managers in the planning phase to validate the schedule critical path time
and project budget. Research methodology is steered per the following progression: i) Conduct nonparametric
test for project cost and time performance. ii) Develop generic multiple-regression models to predict project cost
and duration using historic performance data. iii) The percent prediction error is statistically analyzed; and found
to be substantial; thus, iv) Custom multiple regression models are developed for each project type to obtain
statistically reliable results. In conclusion, the 95% point estimation of error margin= ±0.035%. Therefore, at a
probability of 95%, the proposed model predicts the project cost and duration with a precision of ±0.035% of the
mean cost and time.
Keywords:
Prediction model, Construction projects, Time, Cost, Jordan.