Jordan Journal of Civil Engineering

Neuro-Fuzzy -Based Crowd Speed Analysis at Mass Gathering Events


Poojari Yugendar; K.V.R. Ravishankar;


Airports, shopping centers, sport stadiums and religious houses,… etc. are largely crowded areas. There is a need for the design and planning of crowded facilities to handle large volumes of crowd. Injuries and fatalities in emergency evacuations were not only caused by the hazards, but also by actions of the crowd. Stampedes are caused both by the real hazards like fire, earthquake,… etc. and the behavior of the crowd. Crowd speed is one major factor in analyzing crowd events. The physical factors and environmental factors influence the speed of an individual in a crowd. In this study, effects of factors like age, gender, group size, child holding, child carrying, people with luggage and without luggage on crowd speed are considered for analysis. The statistical analysis concluded that there was a significant effect of age, gender, density and luggage on the crowd walking speed. Multi-linear regression (MLR), Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and Adaptive Neuro-fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) models were developed between crowd speed and significant factors observed from the statistical analysis. The results showed that the ANFIS model results are the best fitted compared to other models. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Route Mean Square Error (RMSE) of the ANFIS model are determined as 0.130 and 0.098.


Crowd, ANN, ANFIS, MLR, RMSE, MAPE, Speed.