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Risk Analysis For A Bot Project

Last Update2011-07-12
TitleRisk Analysis For A Bot Project
Author(s)Author #1
Author title:
Name: Swapan Kumar Bagui
Org: PhD Scholar

Author #2
Author title:
Name: Ambarish Ghosh
Org: Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, Bengal Engineering and Science University, Shibpur, Howrah 711 103

Other Author(s)
Contact AuthorAuthor #1
Alt Email:
KeywordsRisk analysis, BOT projects
AbstractThere are several risks in a BOT project. Major critical risks are total project cost and revenue/tollable traffic. This paper presents a sensitivity analysis for a BOT project with a real case study varying equity from 10% to 90%.Traffic and cost are varied � 20% and financial analysis is carried out with spread sheet, and test results are prepared in graphical forms and presented. Total Project Cost (TPC), Net Present Value (NPV) and Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR) are plotted with various percentages of equity. Linear and non-linear graphs are found. FIRR decreases with increasing TPC/Equity, and probability of project risk increases with increasing percentage of equity up to 30 % and decreases beyond this value.
Paperview paper 2159.pdf (415KB)